Maybe the pollsters don't call your house when you're home... maybe the guy with the clipboard isn't at the mall when you're there... maybe no one emails you the surveys... No problem!
Have your opinion heard and predict races around the country at Predict '06. Evidently, our voices ARE being heard there!
While you may view the results on Predict '06 as evidence that Conservatives are determined to get out and vote, to ensure that our country stays in capable hands, and to prove that point online if nowhere else, the folks at Predict '06 aren't so sure. They are trying to reason out the landslide online predictions as people predicting the party line only. Maybe that's true; then again, maybe people are predicting that Americans understand what's at risk and refuse to cave into media hype:
Have your opinion heard and predict races around the country at Predict '06. Evidently, our voices ARE being heard there!
While you may view the results on Predict '06 as evidence that Conservatives are determined to get out and vote, to ensure that our country stays in capable hands, and to prove that point online if nowhere else, the folks at Predict '06 aren't so sure. They are trying to reason out the landslide online predictions as people predicting the party line only. Maybe that's true; then again, maybe people are predicting that Americans understand what's at risk and refuse to cave into media hype:
"...And it was on both sides. Those who predicted Democratic victory were just as likely to make straight partisan predictions as those who predicted Republican victory. There were obviously more of the Republicans in terms of raw numbers (the current community prediction is evidence of that), but both sides were equally likely to predict starkly partisan outcomes..."The "current community prediction" may not be evidence of a strong Republican turnout at Predict '06; it may simply be evidence that Americans, regardless of party, understand what's at risk and are predicting a common-sense outcome in these races.
Comments
I just had this discussion with one of my respected Bush hating buddies. The point being argued was that if you conduct a poll population where maybe 1 in 5 of X group will talk to you vs 1 in 2 for Y group, you can get a valid idea of the "viewpoint" of the two groups on some issues, but a vote prediction? Don't think so, as the actual population of group X is not as easily determined, and in the case of conservative minded people, the voting rate is higher than other side.
The folks at Predict '06 sent out an email to bloggers about their site. Political bloggers, in general, are probably the best demographic of "likely voters." So, the results they're seeing are an indication that there are a lot of Conservative voters who will be at the polls on November 7th. It seems to me that their results are likely to be better as they're targeting an online audience of people who care about and follow politics.
There's actual some mention on the blog side of that site that *gasp!* people are even predicting races outside of their own states! Well, yeah... Political bloggers are following EVERY race in the nation right now because EVERY race is important. Research on all the races and all the candidates and the poll numbers is standard fare for us. Duh.